27 September 2023

Warm, wet autumn ahead

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The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has forecast a warmer than average autumn this year for most of Australia.

Climatologist at the BOM, Andrew Watkins said both daytime and overnight temperatures were set to rise while rainfall trends were uncertain.

“The low likelihood of widespread above or below average rainfall is largely due to our significant climate drivers – such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – being neutral,” Dr Watkins said.

“We’re not expecting these neutral patterns to change over the season.”

Dr Watkins said it was important that people understood that autumn was historically a time of year when the main climate drivers could change from one State to another.

“Typically, in autumn our main climate drivers are resetting, which means they’re exerting less influence on our weather patterns,” he said.

“This means we can expect our weather over the coming month or two to be driven by more local conditions, and that makes the seven-day forecast an important tool for assessing upcoming rainfall.”

Dr Watkins said the outlook showed that some part of Australia’s tropical north could have a drier end to their wet season, while parts of southern and south eastern Australia were showing a slight increased chance of above average rainfall for the next three months.

“All international models analysed by the Bureau are currently showing our climate drivers in the Pacific or Indian Ocean remaining neutral in the coming months,” he said.

“By winter, we will have an even clearer indication if this will change, and hence what the weather will look like for the rest of 2020.”

Dr Watkins said the 2019/2020 summer had been among the three warmest on record for Australia, while summer rainfall had remained below average nationwide.

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