26 September 2023

Climate report predicts rain and fire

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Changes to weather and climate extremes are happening at an increased pace across Australia, according to a report from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

Director of CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre, Jaci Brown said the State of the Climate 2022 report, released every two years, showed an increase in extreme heat events, intense heavy rainfall, longer fire seasons and sea level rise.

Dr Brown said concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, were at the highest levels seen on Earth in at least two million years.

“The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are continuing to rise, and this is causing Australia’s climate to warm,” Dr Brown said.

She said the Report documented the continuing acidification of the oceans around Australia, which have also warmed by more than one degree since 1900.

“The warming of our oceans is contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves, and this trend is expected to continue into the future,” the Director said.

“We’re seeing mass coral bleaching events more often, and this year, for the first time, we’ve seen a mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef during a La Niña year,” she said.

“The rate of sea level rise varies around Australia’s coastlines, but the north and south-east have experienced the most significant increases.”

Manager of Climate Environmental Prediction Services at BoM, Karl Braganza said the Report projected increases in air temperatures, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes in coming decades.

“Australia’s climate has warmed on average by 1.47 degrees since 1910,” Dr Braganza said.

“We’ve seen contrasting rainfall trends across the north and the south of the country,” he said.

“There’s been an overall decline in rainfall between April and October across southern Australia in recent decades, but in northern Australia, rainfall has increased across the region since the 1970s.”

Dr Braganza said heavy rainfall events were becoming more intense and the number of short-duration heavy rainfall events was expected to increase in the future.

In contrast, he said the length of fire seasons had increased across the country in recent decades.

“We’re expecting to see longer fire seasons in the future for the south and east, and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days,” he said.

The 27-page State of the Climate Report can be downloaded at this PS News link.

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