26 September 2023

Weather Bureau forecasts weather to change

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There’s good news on the horizon for Australia’s water-logged eastern seaboard, with the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest climate outlooks showing that La Niña weakening in the Pacific Ocean.

However, Senior Climatologist at the Bureau, Catherine Ganter said the forecast of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may see the wet weather continue across most of the country.

“It’s likely that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation will return to neutral with the current La Niña event expected to end around late autumn to early winter,” Ms Ganter said.

“While active, La Niña brings more rain than average to eastern parts of Australia, through the influence of warmer sea surface temperatures in the Australian region, and trade winds from the east,” she said.

“In the neutral state, instead, rainfall tends to be close to average values.”

Ms Ganter said the other climate driver bringing interest was the IOD, “this is currently neutral but is forecast to develop into a negative IOD in the coming months.”

She said a negative IOD typically meant Australia was more likely to see above average winter and spring rainfall throughout most of the country.

The Senior Climatologist said a negative IOD also increased the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.

“The current May to July outlook indicates a strong chance of above average rainfall for much of Australia, with lower chances in south-west Australia and western Tasmania,” Ms Ganter said.

“Climate model projections do generally have lower accuracy at this time of year so the IOD outlook needs to be closely monitored and its forecast continuously updated.”

Further information on the current climate outlook can be accessed at this PS News link.

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