26 September 2023

End of La Niña not to be end of rain

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The weather pattern that has drenched the east coast for months has ended but this is unlikely to change the Territory’s weather outlook according the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

Commenting on the news, the ACT Emergency Services Agency (ACTESA) said La Niña was a change in Pacific Ocean temperatures that affected global weather and typically brought increased rainfall and cooler temperatures to much of Australia.

“In the ACT, we’re unlikely to see any significant change in the current weather, with above-average rainfall expected to continue throughout winter, and into spring,” ACTESA said.

Head of long-range forecasting at BoM, Andrew Watkins said that while the 2021-22 La Niña had ended, there was around a 50 per cent chance of the weather pattern forming again this year.

“A La Niña WATCH does not change the outlook of above average rainfall for most of Australia over coming months,” Dr Watkins said.

“The Bureau’s long-range outlook remains wetter-than-average, consistent with model outlooks from other global forecast centres, reflecting a range of climate drivers including a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and warmer-than-average waters around Australia,” he said.

“Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average for much of the Australian coastline, particularly to the north and west.”

Dr Watkins said this pattern was likely to increase the chance of above average rainfall in winter and spring for Australia.

The latest information on climate drivers can be accessed at this PS News link.

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