The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is predicting a drier and warmer autumn than is usual across most of Australia this year.
Technical Lead of Extended Prediction at BoM, Andrew Watkins said the Bureau’s long-range forecast for autumn 2023 showed warmer than usual daytime temperatures very likely for much of Australia, while warmer nights were also likely in coastal areas of the mainland and particularly Tasmania.
Dr Watkins said drier than average conditions emerged in some areas over summer, including parts of southern Queensland, western Tasmania and south-west Western Australia.
“Australia’s key climate drivers are easing and expected to be neutral over the coming months,” Dr Watkins said.
“When our climate drivers are more neutral, autumn rainfall in southern Australia has generally been lower than average over recent decades,” he said.
“With drier conditions emerging in some areas over summer, and dry and warm conditions likely in autumn, some areas may continue to have below average rainfall over coming months.”
Dr Watkins said Australia’s fire agencies had identified that most of the country had normal bushfire potential during autumn, however areas above normal bushfire risk included parts of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
He said there was also a continued risk of grassfires across southern Australia after abundant vegetation growth during the second-wettest spring on record in 2022 dried over summer.
“For northern Australia, the wet season continues during March and April,” Dr Watkins said.
“Tropical cyclones, tropical lows, storms and active monsoon bursts can occur in the north.
“During the northern wet season, tropical weather systems may, at times, reach southern Australia.”
Dr Watkins said the chance of more rainfall meant the flood risk remained, particularly in areas where rivers and water storages were still high.
BoM’s long-range forecast for autumn can be accessed at this PS News link.
