The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has released its 2020 Winter Outlook, with most of the country showing an increased likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions in the coming three months.
Manager of long-range forecasting at the Bureau, Andrew Watkins said there were only a few areas across the country that weren’t looking at a wetter than average winter ahead.
“Most areas of mainland Australia are showing a better than 70 per cent chance of having a wetter than average winter,” Dr Watkins said.
“The only exceptions are the coastal fringes of NSW and eastern Victoria, parts of Tasmania and areas of southwest WA where the outlook isn’t pushing towards wetter or drier than average conditions,” he said.
“Parts of northern Australia are also showing no strong push towards wetter than average conditions, but this is typically the dry season anyway.”
Dr Watkins said the outlook was being largely driven by warmer than average ocean temperatures off North West WA, as well as warm ocean temperatures in the western Pacific.
“Ocean temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are currently warmer than normal, and our models are predicting they will warm further throughout the winter months,” he said.
“When warm sea surface temperatures occur closer to Australia, weather patterns shift towards us too, favouring more cloud and rainfall across the country.”
He said daytime temperatures throughout the winter months were expected to be cooler than average for much of the southern half of the country, but warmer than average along the eastern seaboard and most of northern Australia.
“Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the entire country,” Dr Watkins said.
The Bureau’s full statement can be accessed at this PS News link.
