The Department of Health has released a report on a proposed national plan to develop an Australia-wide response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Department said the Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet (30 July), developed by the University of Melbourne’s Doherty Institute, used models of COVID-19 infections and vaccinations to define target levels of vaccine coverage.
It said the Report concluded that 70 per cent vaccine coverage was the key to ending lockdowns.
The Doherty Institute said that in developing the plan, it compared the relative impacts on transmission and health outcomes of continuing the current risk-focused strategy with alternatives focused on reducing infection spread across the whole population.
“We included a scenario assessing the additional impact of increasing age eligibility for vaccination to 12-plus years,” it said.
The Institute said it believed the use of continuous low-level social restrictions would make the requirement for stringent lockdowns unlikely at 70 per cent population vaccine coverage.
“At this stage of the national COVID-19 vaccine rollout, extending eligibility to key transmitting age groups, offers the greatest potential to reduce transmission even at lower coverage, reducing workplace absenteeism, clinical cases and deaths across the whole population,” it said.
“Expanding the vaccine program to the 12-to-15-year-age group would have minimal impact on transmission and clinical outcomes for any achieved level of vaccine uptake.”
The Institute cautioned its findings were conditional on public health workforce and response capacity which varied nationally, as well as population compliance with public health recommendations and orders, and persistence of immunity following infection or vaccination over a six-month timeframe.
In addition, the Institute said the emergence of new variants would “require re-evaluation of targets and associated requirements for public health measures”.
The 42-page Report and its 24-page addendum can be accessed at this PS News link.
