The Bureau of Meteorology has released its 2019-20 Summer Outlook, showing large parts of the country are likely to see continued warm weather and drier than average conditions through the next three months.
The Bureau’s Head of Long Range Forecasts, Andrew Watkins said the climate outlook showed a high likelihood of warmer than average days and nights for most of the country, while rainfall was likely to be below average for large parts of the nation’s east.
“Only coastal areas of Western Australia, stretching from the Midwest to the Kimberley, are showing increased odds of wetter than average conditions,” Dr Watkins said.
“The key culprit for our current and expected conditions is one of the strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on record.”
He said a positive IOD meant cooler than average water pooling off Indonesia, resulting in less rain-bearing weather systems and warmer than average temperatures for large parts of the country.
“The positive IOD means we’re also expecting a delayed onset for the northern monsoon, one of the key drivers for tropical rainfall during the summer months,” Dr Watkins said.
“At this stage we’re expecting the onset of the northern monsoon by mid-Summer, which should see the odds for closer to average rainfall increasing from January and into February.”
He said the outlook was an important reminder for communities to be alert to potential severe weather risks over the coming months.
“We’ve already seen significant bushfire activity during Spring, and the outlook for drier and warmer than average conditions will maintain that heightened risk over the coming months,” Dr Watkins said.
“This outlook also means the risk of heatwaves is increased, so it’s important the community stays up to date with the latest information and advice from authorities and the Bureau’s heatwave forecasts and warnings.”
