Queensland’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be almost twice as strong as the Australian average, according to forecasts in Treasury’s COVID-19 Fiscal and Economic Review.
Welcoming his Department’s report, Treasurer, Cameron Dick said while COVID-19 had wrought significant damage on jobs and businesses, there was reason for optimism.
“With unemployment forecast to peak in the December quarter at nine per cent, Treasury is forecasting an economic rebound into calendar 2021,” Mr Dick said.
“Queensland’s Gross State Product is forecast to grow by 3.75 per cent in calendar year 2021, compared to a Reserve Bank of Australia forecast of national GDP to grow by two per cent.”
He said the State’s strong health response laid the foundation for easing internal restrictions, benefiting businesses.
“As we deliver our plan for economic recovery, boosting competitiveness and resilience of the Queensland economy will be the key,” the Treasurer said.
As a result, he was announcing a range of measures to support business investment and jobs; ease the burden on small business; and ensure Queensland’s balance sheet worked as hard as it possibly could.
“As the crisis is still ongoing, there is a significant degree of uncertainty around fiscal parameters beyond the short term,” Mr Dick said.
Given this, and consistent with the position taken by the Federal Government, the Fiscal and Economic Review provided a two-year view.
“Since the beginning of this year, international and domestic economic conditions have been changing on an almost daily basis, rendering the normally difficult practice of economic forecasting that much harder,” the Treasurer said.
“Unemployment is forecast to peak at nine per cent in the December quarter, improving to eight per cent by the June quarter 2021, with jobs growth partially offset by people re-entering the labour force as opportunities improve.”
He said the domestic and global economic downturn was substantially impacting Queensland’s revenue sources with GST, royalties and land rents, and taxation receipts all forecast to fall significantly.
Mr Dick said that while there was not currently enough financial certainty to allow for four years of economic forecasts, should the Government be re‑elected in October, a full Budget would be delivered in the week beginning 30 November.
Treasury’s 38-page Review can be accessed at this PS News link.
