Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, US President Joe Biden (and then British PM Rishi Sunak) announcing the AUKUS submarine arrangement last year. Photo: Prime Minister’s Office social media.
American politics has just been delivered a game changer.
It’s one that was inevitable and one that should have come quite some time ago.
While it suddenly makes the US presidential race more of a competition and definitely more exciting (assassination attempts aside), there’s still much to play out before the world knows who will be the 47th President of the United States.
And while we watch for the outcome with bated breath, it’s worth musing over what the implications might be for Australia now that we know Joe Biden is not seeking a second term.
First, as the Prime Minister, the Opposition Leader and pretty much all of their predecessors like to repeat ad infinitum – the bilateral relationship between Australia and the United States is strong and will remain so.
Well, let’s hope so.
Donald Trump is such a loose cannon, who knows what will become of the relationship, although it survived his previous stint in office.
In fact, Australia fared quite well in comparison to how Trump dealt with many other nations around the world (despite Malcolm Turnbull’s first testy phone call with him over the refugee intake that had been negotiated with Barack Obama).
Our Ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, was doing his best (before he became the ambassador) to dampen any goodwill Trump might have towards Australia with some harsh and unflattering descriptions of the 45th President.
“Donald Trump is a traitor to the West. Murdoch was Trump’s biggest backer. And Murdoch’s Fox Television backs Putin, too. What rancid treachery,” Rudd tweeted a few years back.
Another said: “The most destructive president in history. He drags America and democracy through the mud. He thrives on fomenting, not healing, division. He abuses Christianity, church and Bible to justify violence. All aided and abetted by Murdoch’s Fox News network in America which feeds this.”
When those old comments were dug up and presented to Trump in a recent media interview, the former president, in turn, described Rudd as “nasty” and “not the brightest bulb” while also acknowledging that he didn’t really know Australia’s 26th Prime Minister and 23rd (and current) Ambassador to the United States.
Whatever people think of Rudd (and there are many opinions), “not being the brightest bulb” isn’t a label that applies.
Nevertheless, Trump vowed that if he wins this year’s election, Australia’s current ambassador “won’t be there long”.
So when Rudd was seen commentating at last week’s Republican convention, positively talking up Trump’s character and policies – and telling people to chill at the prospect of his return to the White House – it was a sure sign Australia was preparing for the former president to become the next on, too.
Rudd wasn’t as concerned about his own job as he was about keeping the Aus-US relationship on track.
Biden’s term as President has played out well for Australia, as both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton attested to yesterday when the President pulled out of the race.
Trade, security and people-to-people relationships have strengthened (AUKUS anyone?)
It is usually the case between the two nations, regardless of who occupies the White House and who’s in the Lodge.
It will continue on that path if Kamala Harris is elected in November, but she has to get the Democrats’ nomination first.
For us, and most of America, she is as much an unknown as she is known.
But it is a sure thing that one of the first congratulatory international phone calls she will take, if she is the nominee and if she does beat Trump, will be from Albanese.
And so it will go.
The relationship will stay on course, regardless of who the next president is.
There are too many wise mandarins on both sides of the Pacific to let it flounder.
Presidents and prime ministers can take all the bows, but it’s the skills and diligence of advisers and dedicated public servants that make it all happen and keep it all on track – even during those times when duds and ditherers might head governments.
One factor to not forget in these latest developments is that Biden is still President of the United States and will remain so, health permitting, until January next year.
We can all take him at his word when he says he has decided to dedicate all his efforts to the rest of his time in office.
The term “lame-duck” will be bandied around a great deal between now and November’s election and between then and next January, but it’s a sure bet Biden will want to be seen to achieve a lot in his last months in office.
He’s got a legacy to shore up, and he genuinely wants to achieve more of what’s left on his agenda.
Outgoing presidents sometimes do some of their grandest work (for better or for worse) as their tenure draws to a close.
In Biden’s case, whatever he does over the next few months in terms of policy could only serve to further enhance the relationship between America and Australia.
But let’s not completely rule out the possibility he could buckle to even more pressure from elements within his party to step down as President well before the election to give Harris the benefit of contesting it with the advantage of incumbency.
Original Article published by Chris Johnson on Riotact.
