Researchers from The University of Queensland (UQ) have developed and validated a new model, enabling them to accurately predict if babies are at risk of childhood obesity.
The i-PATHWAY model uses simple risk factors mostly gathered during routine doctor visits at 12 months of age, to predict childhood obesity by the age of eight or nine.
Research Fellow and dietitian with the UQ Centre for Health Services Research, Oliver Canfell said i-PATHWAY could calculate the risk of childhood obesity with 74.6 per cent accuracy.
“Risk factors used are the baby’s weight change in the first year, mother’s pre-pregnancy height and weight, father’s height and weight, baby’s sleep pattern in the first year, premature birth, if the mother smoked during pregnancy and if the baby is female,” Dr Canfell said.
He said obesity prevention was most effective in the first 1,000 days of life and i-PATHWAY could be used in this period to prioritise prevention for babies at high risk.
“Almost one-in-four Australian children live with an unhealthy weight. Identifying babies at high risk means that clinicians and families can be proactive together to implement preventive actions that are family-based,” Dr Canfell said.
“We chose to predict childhood obesity at age eight or nine years because the older the child with obesity, the more likely they are to live with obesity as an adult.”
The i-PATHWAY study used data from almost 2,000 children followed from birth to the age of nine in the Raine Study in Western Australia.
“The data has shown predicting childhood obesity in Australia is possible, but before clinicians — such as GPs and Child Health Nurses — can use i-PATHWAY in practice, we need to test the model in a different group of children to confirm its predictions are still valid,” Dr Canfell said.
“Once i-PATHWAY is validated in a different group, we can then test it in practice and see how effective it is in helping to prevent childhood obesity.”
