The Defence Ministry headed up by Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles remains unchanged. Photo: Richard Marles Facebook.
Australia’s defence industry likely won’t be happy with the Federal election results, as there was hope that some of the increased spending promised by a Peter Dutton-led Coalition Government may have flowed downhill to local businesses.
At least, that was the general feeling among defence industry officials I spoke with at March’s Avalon Airshow in Melbourne, and that was before Mr Dutton’s pre-election short-on-detail promise to boost spending to 3 per cent of GDP by mid-next decade.
Despite Labor’s claims that it has boosted and accelerated defence spending since coming to power in 2022, a large percentage of that has gone directly offshore in the form of new air-, sea- and land-launched missile systems, and on the foundations of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine program which still won’t deliver any hardware for a decade or more.
While the policies are unlikely to change, one silver lining for industry is that Labor’s new Defence Ministry remains the same, so there will at least be some continuity there.
Labor has thrown some big numbers around on Defence, most recently in March’s Federal Budget.
“When we came to office in 2022, we inherited a mess in Defence,” Defence Minister Richard Marles said at the time. “There was $42 billion worth of programs with zero dollars behind them.
“During a wasted decade, six Liberal defence ministers over nine years, including Peter Dutton, presided over 28 projects running 97 years behind schedule.
“During a time of challenging strategic conditions, Australia’s defence force was shrinking,” he added. “Almost $20 billion was secretly ripped out of Defence.”
It may be true that the Coalition’s eyes were bigger than its stomach in terms of its defence budgets but, in reality, little has changed.
After winning government, Labor immediately set about commissioning defence reviews, resulting in its Defence Strategic Review in 2023, and a somewhat underwhelming National Defence Strategy in April 2024.
While Labor has increased spending, it remains roughly on a par with levels the Coalition had promised in 2021.
Granted, Labor has brought some ‘low hanging fruit’ projects forward by a few years such as Army’s new HIMARS long-range artillery and Hanwha AS21 Redback infantry fighting vehicles, and new anti-ship missiles for the Air Force and Navy.
But it has also committed some $360 billion over 20 years – an extraordinary amount of money by any measure – to the AUKUS Pillar 1 pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines, while other capabilities that are in service now continue to suffer from poor sustainment, obsolescence, or a lack of manpower.
Other new capabilities have been scaled back – the F-35A combat aircraft from 100 to 72 jets, the MQ-4C Triton high-altitude uncrewed maritime reconnaissance aircraft from seven to just four, the AS21 Redback from 450 to 129, the AS9/10 Self-Propelled Howitzers from more than 90 to 45, the Arafura-class Offshore Patrol Vessels from 12 to six, and Hunter-class frigates from nine to six.
Elsewhere, a planned sovereign satellite communications program and an underwater sonar array requirement have both been scrapped, while the Navy’s six ageing Collins-class submarines continue to suffer from poor availability and don’t look like receiving their much-needed life-of-type extension upgrades anytime soon.
Granted, some of these shortfalls will be filled with newer capabilities such as additional Cape-class patrol boats, the planned General Purpose Frigates, allied satellite systems and visiting allied submarines, and the retention of capabilities such as the Air Force’s 24 Super Hornets. But other gaps won’t be filled.
Labor continues to drag its feet on committing to new drones and counter-drone systems, and force-protection/area air defence systems, both of which have been proven by recent events in Israel, Yemen and Ukraine to be indispensable for any future conflict.
Drones of most sizes are capabilities that have been or can be developed in Australia and produced relatively quickly, while we also have world-class manufacturers of electronic warfare, optical and radar-based sensors here too.
And then there is the manpower problem. Despite Labor claiming recruitment is up, it is nowhere near the levels it needs to be to man all of the planned new ships and submarines and armoured vehicles the ADF will receive in the next decade, let alone allow for any further expansion of the ADF if tensions in the region continue to rise.
While enquiries may be at sufficient levels, anecdotal reports suggest the ADF and its commercial agency partner are incapable of actually recruiting and inducting people fast enough, leaving many prospects to give up and look for work elsewhere.
