IRELAND
A new review of future spending in the Irish Public Service has predicted that staffing levels could rise by nearly 25 per cent to more than 410,000 by 2025.
The Government’s wage bill could grow to €24 billion (A$39.2 billion) per year under various Government employment models and projections.
The Department of Public Expenditure spending review found a strong correlation between overall population growth and Public Service numbers.
It said a 1 per cent increase in the age cohort between 15 and 65 years old “will place an additional 3 per cent increase on Public Service numbers over the long run”.
“A 1 per cent increase in the old-age population will place an additional 1.6 per cent increase in Public Service numbers over the long run,” the review said.
“There is shown to be a marginal impact of the less than 14 years old cohort on Public Service numbers over the long run; however, this has not been the case in more recent years.”
One model examined in the review suggests that, conservatively, there could be growth in Public Service personnel to 342,000 by the end of 2019 and to 350,000 in 2020.
Under another model based on overall population growth of about 10 per cent, increases in the over 65 age group of 33 per cent and a decline of 4 per cent in the numbers aged under 14 — and without any policy changes to reduce employment levels — suggest Public Service numbers could exceed 410,000 by the end of 2025.
The review said this would represent a 24 per cent increase on 2018 figures.
Another model in the spending review paper suggests the Exchequer’s pay bill could grow by about 8 per cent per annum, increasing to €24 billion by 2022.
The spending review said since 2014, and the end of the Public Service recruitment moratorium, the number of PS employees had grown by 43,755, bringing the total to 335,000 full-time equivalents.
The Government’s pay bill will be about €18.7 billion (A$30.6 billion) this year.
Dublin, 8 October 2019
