Karim Elgendy* says the environmental degradation in Gaza is an early sign of what could be coming for the whole of the Levant.
Located on the dividing line between the Mediterranean climate to its north and the desert to its south, Gaza was first settled as an oasis by the sea.
It was built to take advantage of the coastal groundwater aquifer as well as Wadi Gaza, into which several streams flowed from across the Negev Desert.
It benefitted from fertile soils, access to the Mediterranean, and excellent trade links which made it a strategic and economic hub.
However, in the 19th century Gaza’s significance declined as it was eclipsed by the ports of Jaffa and Haifa, while the creation of Israel in 1948 disconnected it from the rest of historic Palestine.
Today, the Gaza Strip is not only economically devastated but also considered ‘unliveable’ by the United Nations.
This is in large part due to repeated Israeli military assaults and a debilitating 13-year siege imposed by Israel.
Gaza’s limited freshwater resources are being pumped at an unsustainable rate, and 95 per cent of its groundwater is deemed undrinkable due to contamination.
In addition, its agricultural land, constantly shrinking due to Israeli military encroachment, is increasingly insufficient to feed its rapidly growing population.
Climate change is expected to compound these challenges by making precipitation even more erratic and unpredictable, further weakening the depleted and contaminated coastal aquifer.
It is also expected to increase temperature and water evaporation, reducing agricultural productivity and further worsening food insecurity.
While the situation in Gaza may seem exceptional, it is the canary in the coal mine for the environmental and humanitarian disaster the whole of the Eastern Mediterranean region will face if urgent climate action is not taken.
The rest of the Levant — including the occupied Palestinian territories, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan — is also struggling with these environmental challenges.
Geographer, Tony Allan has pointed out that the region between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River “ran out” of water and food self-sufficiency some 50 years ago.
If one looks at the food imports of the region, it becomes apparent why he made that point.
Even in Israel, which is often hailed as a pioneer of agricultural technology, more than half of the calories consumed are imported.
The Levant is struggling with scarce and over-exploited water supplies, especially in parts of Syria and Jordan.
The region is no stranger to periods of drought, and has always experienced contraction of agricultural and pastoral land to its south and east during such periods — a pattern that has shaped its culture and history.
However, the intense droughts and desertification expected due to climate change could be far worse.
Global climate change is widely expected to bring wetter conditions to many places around the world.
However, due to the Eastern Mediterranean’s unique geography, the Levant, Turkey, Egypt and Cyprus are likely to experience the opposite.
Climate models suggest that climate change will bring less rainfall and longer droughts to the region, with less groundwater available to help bridge dry periods.
The consequences of these changes cannot be overstated. Droughts currently experienced in the Eastern Mediterranean are already harsh.
Some scholars have argued that drought contributed to the uprising in Syria in 2011, which ultimately led to the Syrian civil war, although the role it played remains a subject of debate.
What is not in doubt, however, is that climate change will lead to cascading socio-economic and political challenges.
Rising temperatures and falling water supplies are expected to increase food insecurity and employment fragility, inevitably leading to migration.
These impacts will be felt the hardest in areas struggling with conflict, displacement, military occupation, limited natural resources and rapid population growth.
One of the Levant’s hotspots where many of these factors intersect is the Jordan Valley.
In a forthcoming Chatham House paper, Glada Lahn and I concluded that climate change is unlikely to lead directly to conflict around the Jordan Valley, but will exacerbate existing social tensions and competition over resources.
While adaptation on the Jordanian side is a matter of political coordination and financial resources, the West Bank’s climate action is restricted by the Israeli occupation.
For centuries, Egypt served as a shock absorber, supplying surplus grain when the Levant was hit by famine.
This was only possible due to the independence of Egyptian food production from the Mediterranean climate and its use of the Nile River, fed by the monsoons of East Africa.
This is no longer the case. Egypt today is no one’s breadbasket, having become the world’s largest wheat importer.
The construction of the Aswan Dam in the 1960s reduced its soil fertility, while the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is expected to further diminish food production.
As much as two-thirds of Egypt’s agricultural land could be lost.
The last time both Egypt and the Levant faced simultaneous water and food shortages was a millennium ago.
A series of droughts spanning more than a century gave rise to a famine every five years on average.
This led to mass deaths, economic crisis, the destruction of the city of Fustat, even cannibalism.
Globalised trade has diminished the chances of such famines happening today.
The growing momentum for climate action holds out hope that climate change in the region can be managed.
However, the race to mitigate climate change is incredibly tight, and the region urgently needs to do more to adapt to changes already taking place.
The region’s Governments have to realise that it is in their common interest to take collective action.
Gaza’s high susceptibility to changes in its environment is an early warning sign to the rest of the region about the impending risks of climate change.
The region will survive only if this early warning is acknowledged and appropriate action taken.
*Karim Elgendy is a sustainability consultant based in London. He is an Associate Fellow with Chatham House.
