24 August 2026

Farley simple maths leaves One Nation in a migration muddle

| By Chris Johnson
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One Nation crew

David Farley (third from left) with One Nation’s team in Canberra: Sean Bell, Malcolm Roberts, Pauline Hanson, Barnaby Joyce and Tyron Whitten. Photo: David Farley.

One Nation’s migration policy has become even more confusing, following leader Pauline Hanson publicly chiding her newest MP David Farley for suggesting the party’s approach was similar to Labor’s.

But exactly what Labor’s latest policy is also remains unclear, with the Federal Government having put the brakes on releasing significant changes as it grapples with One Nation’s popularity.

During an interview on the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday (23 August), One Nation’s Member for Farrer suggested his party and Labor were already on the same page when it came to migration numbers.

“The raw number is not too different, but the reality is: where do we need them?” Mr Farley said.

“We don’t need them in the great urban ‘metroplex’. We need them out to be productive, working out in agriculture, engineering, mining, etc.

“The big difference is we are focusing on what are the skills we need as a nation.”

Mr Farley said One Nation’s net overseas migration (NOM) target remained 130,000, but that figure did not include skilled workers, backpackers and Pacific and Timor-Leste labour through the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme.

He said One Nation’s “true NOM” and skilled visa targets would combine to have a migration rate of about 230,000, which would be similar to figures already forecast by the government. Labor’s current target is 225,000 by 2028.

READ ALSO Farley lands first big win with SunRice jobs rescue deal, defends immigration stance

By Sunday afternoon, however, his leader took to social media to put her MP straight on the party’s difference to Labor migration policy – and to try to clarify the One Nation position.

“One Nation’s policy is to cut net overseas migration to 130,000,” Senator Hanson wrote on X.

“The cuts will come from fewer international students and dependants, a dramatic reduction in temporary graduate visas and their dependants, and a much more targeted skilled migration program focused on the skills Australia genuinely needs.

“Short-term seasonal agricultural workers who do not meet the ABS residency test are not counted in net overseas migration. They come for limited periods, often live on farms or regional properties while they work, and return home.

“One Nation’s target is less than half Labor’s current level.

“Labor opened the floodgates to mass migration and has repeatedly blown its own migration forecasts since coming to government.”

Seasonal workers who live in Australia for 12 months over a 16-month period are included in the NOM, which is calculated as the difference between the number of people entering and leaving the country who have lived in or out of the country for 12 months over a 16-month period.

The One Nation muddle caused shadow immigration minister Jonno Duniam to describe the party’s approach as “chaotic”.

“One Nation has somehow managed to turn one headline number (130,000) into at least half a dozen different immigration policies,” Senator Duniam said.

“Depending on the day and the spokesperson, it has meant visas, permanent migration, net migration or apparently some newly invented concept of ‘true NOM’.

“Today we discover that another 100,000 or more migrants can apparently be added outside the headline figure – and One Nation itself even now concedes the resulting forecast isn’t much different from Labor’s … For a party that has spent years telling Australians it has all the answers on immigration, One Nation is having extraordinary difficulty answering the most basic question of all: how many migrants would actually come to Australia under its policy?”

READ ALSO Farley criticises Labor for reducing regional migration, ignores call to “shut up” on issue

Energy Minister Chris Bowen was asked during a media event on Sunday to comment on Mr Farley’s interview.

“As best I can work out what he was saying, he was basically making the point that while it’s important to get net overseas migration down, as the government has been doing, it’s also important to balance that against the needs of business for skilled labour,” Mr Bowen said.

“The numbers he was talking about are very similar to the numbers the government’s been working towards.

“Our target is 225,000, that’s our projection. When you add up what he was saying this morning, he basically gets to the same number.

“So I’m not sure what One Nation is saying about immigration because it appears to me, based on what Mr Farley said, that One Nation now agrees with the approach of the government. And obviously I’d welcome that.”

Immigration Minister Tony Burke, however, recently delayed announcing a major migration overhaul after being reined in by a nervous Cabinet.

The postponed announcement was intended to counter One Nation’s migration approach by edging closer to it.

Labor is still tweaking the numbers, however, with the promise of the Federal Government’s new position to be released soon.

Original Article published by Chris Johnson on Region Canberra.

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