Urgent action is needed to maintain a secure, reliable and affordable supply of electricity to homes and businesses in the few years ahead, according to a new report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).
Chief Executive of AEMO, Daniel Westerman said the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report forecasted electricity reliability concerns that required an urgent response in most regions of the National Electricity Market (NEM) in the next 10 years.
“The ESOO models the latest market data to identify combinations of circumstances when electricity supply won’t be sufficient to meet demand, helping inform the planning and decision-making of market participants, investors and Governments,” Mr Westerman said.
“The Report reiterates the urgent need to progress generation, storage and transmission developments to maintain a secure, reliable and affordable supply of electricity to homes and businesses,” he said.
“Forecast reliability gaps have emerged across NEM regions due to considerable coal and gas plant closures, along with insufficient new generation capacity commitments needed to offset higher electricity use.”
Mr Westerman said that in the next decade, Australia would experience its first cluster of coal-generation retirements – at least five power stations totalling 8.3 gigawatts (GW), equal to approximately 14 per cent of the NEM’s total capacity.
He said that without further investments, this would reduce generation supply and challenge the transmission network’s capability to meet reliability standards and power system security needs.
“Considering only existing and committed projects, AEMO forecasts reliability gaps against the Interim Reliability Measure in South Australia in 2023-24 and Victoria from 2024-25,” the Chief Executive said.
“New South Wales is forecast to breach the reliability standard from 2025-26, followed by Victoria (2028-29), Queensland (2029-30) and South Australia (2031-32),” he said.
“Despite the challenging reliability outlook against ‘committed’ projects, should the 3.4 GW of anticipated generation and storage projects, alongside ISP actionable transmission projects, be delivered to their current schedules, then reliability standards would be met in all regions of the NEM until later in the decade when more large thermal generators exit.”
AEMO’s 122-page Report can be accessed at this PS News link.
