Kitila Davies* reviews an escalating crisis over water in the Middle East which could spill over into conflict in an already troubled region.
The World Resources Institute (WRI) recently identified 18 countries that are likely to suffer from extreme levels of water stress in the near future.
Eleven are located in the Middle East.
Another study found that around two billion people rely on groundwater as their only source of water and that by 2030 global water requirements will be 40 per cent above current sustainable levels.
The top six countries in the WRI report; Qatar, Israel, Lebanon, Palestine (ranked fourth although unofficially included), Iran and Jordan, all suffer from varying degrees of internal and regional instability.
These States do not have the financial resources, or technical ability, to manage water resources — or seek alternatives to alleviate water stress.
This presents an opportunity for cooperation, but regional tensions are increasing the likelihood that water stress will simply act as a catalyst to geo-political instability, as has been the case in the past.
The supply of water in the Middle East has been unable to keep up with the increased demand that has accompanied recent economic, environmental and socio-political trends.
Water insecurity in the region intersects with poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions to create a climate of instability.
This situation will continue to worsen if unaddressed.
Poor governance and a lack of regional cooperation have reduced the quality and quantity of natural water resources in the Middle East.
Factors stemming from mismanagement include over-drawing groundwater reserves, increased construction of dams, pollution and wasteful irrigation systems.
The lack of regional stability has also made cooperation regarding issues of climate change difficult.
Climate variables, such as drought and decreased precipitation, have put further strain on water supplies in the already arid region.
The United Nations Statistical Database estimates that population growth in the Middle Eastern countries identified in the WRI report averaged 2.2 per cent between 2015 and 2020.
This was roughly double the global rate for the same period.
Although population growth in these countries is expected to decline between 2020 and 2025, projections can be inaccurate in regions of instability.
In these areas conflict and rapid fluctuations in migration are common results of both short-term and protracted economic, social, political and environmental factors.
Prolonged droughts, which are expected to worsen with the effects of climate change and groundwater exploitation, have forced rural agricultural communities into urban centres.
In 2006-07, 1.5 million Syrians migrated from rural areas as Government mismanagement contributed to excessive groundwater extraction, which made them more vulnerable to the effects of drought.
Most of the countries identified in the WRI report do not have the political climate or public infrastructure to cope with the pressure that increased urbanisation places on water resources.
The health and welfare of populations are at increased risk as water scarcity forces people to rely on unsafe drinking water.
Not included in the report is Yemen, where years of conflict have brought the country to the brink of disaster.
The United Nations Children’s organisation (UNICEF) says many of the water systems people rely on to survive have been destroyed in the fighting or fallen into disrepair as the country’s economy collapses.
Heightened water stress could lead to reduced drought resilience, degraded food security and increased tensions over water management and development activity.
States could increasingly use water as a tool to gain political and economic leverage over one another.
Support is needed from the international community, as many of these States do not have the internal capacity to alleviate their water stress.
If the coordinated action that is needed to mitigate water stress is not achieved, it could become a catalyst for social and political tensions.
The key to avoiding instability remains prevention through improved technologies and water management.
Risk-mitigation strategies will be ineffectual if socio-political tensions continue to rise.
*Kitila Davies is a Research Assistant with the Global Food and Water Crises Research Program.
This article first appeared on the Future Directions International website.
