As Australia increases spending to defend itself against cyber-attacks, Lindsay Hughes* describes a conflict that has been raging for years.
Reports have emerged of a massive blast at the Iran’s Khojir military facility around 20 kilometres outside Tehran.
The complex is believed to house a missile research and manufacturing facility in underground tunnels.
What exploded there and what caused it remain unclear.
Despite the lack of detail about the event, one expert noted: “Although military and defence industry accidents do occur in Iran, the consensus appears to be a cyber-strike by Israel against Iran.”
He is probably correct in that assessment: Iran and Israel have engaged at various times in cyber-attacks on each other and neither shows any signs of stopping them.
The same expert also pointed out that if the explosion was indeed a cyber-attack, it would also be a continuation of the use of the so-called Stuxnet Virus.
That virus brought down Iran’s Siemens-built centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear facility in 2012.
Not given to shying away from launching cyber-attacks of their own, Tehran’s ayatollahs sought to cripple Israel’s water supply in April this year.
According to Israeli authorities, Iranian hackers sought to increase the amount of chlorine added to the water supply.
Had they succeeded, the in-built fail-safes in the water-processing plants would have detected the excess chlorine and shut down the system, leaving Israelis without water.
Iran has denied the allegation, but Israel’s retaliation was not long in coming.
On 9 May, Iran’s Shahid Rajaee freight terminal on the Strait of Hormuz experienced a sophisticated cyber-attack.
It created kilometres-long queues of vehicles outside the port, which lasted for days, and vessels stuck in the harbour.
According to an anonymous source, the attack was “highly accurate” and the damage, which left the port in “total disarray”, was far more serious than described in official accounts.
Israel’s strategy of attacking Iranian military installations and facilities in Syria with bombs appears to have been extended into cyber-space.
It is hardly surprising then, that the Khojir facility was attacked.
Referring to the attack on the port, an Israeli officer said: “Any disruption would be economic, nobody’s safety would be placed at risk; they would be reminded we are here, we are watching.”
The head of Tel Aviv’s Military Intelligence Department, Tamir Hayman, honoured the units that were involved in the cyber-attack with ‘Certificates of Appreciation’.
Towards the end of May, hundreds of Israeli websites, all hosted by one commercial organisation, were attacked and defaced with an anti-Israel message and video.
In this instance, it was assessed that nine hackers from Turkey, North Africa and the Gaza Strip were responsible for the attack.
A second attack that same day tried to install ransomware on the computers of Israeli manufacturers and also targeted research facilities working on a vaccine for COVID-19.
There was some speculation that Iran may have instigated those attacks.
Given that, it was perhaps inevitable that Israel would launch another attack on Iran.
The Khojir missile facility has been suspected of being a site of numerous tunnels, some suspected of being used for the assembly of missiles.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has previously claimed that Iran could be conducting tests of explosive triggers that could be used in nuclear weapons.
Iran has denied that allegation, too.
The blast appears to have struck a plant operated by the Shahid Bakeri Industrial Group, which makes solid-propellant rockets.
Another cyber-attack that coincided with the attack on the Khojir base plunged Tehran into darkness.
It was, most likely, Israel’s way of informing Tehran that it could carry out simultaneous attacks while also sending a warning that it could, and would, attack different parts of Iran’s infrastructure.
Given all of that, it is almost inevitable that the two sides will continue to attack and retaliate against each other.
If that is the case, the only question that remains to be asked is, how far will each go to enact a punishment on the other?
*Lindsay Hughes is a Senior Research Analyst, Indo-Pacific Research Program.
This article originally appeared on the Future Directions International website.
