The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has released its annual outlook for Spring, forecasting it will be warmer and drier than average.
Head of long-range forecasting at BoM, Andrew Watkins said this will follow warmer than average Winter days for most of Australia, which was also one of the driest Winters on record for large parts of the country.
“Unfortunately, the outlook is not indicating an easing of conditions in drought areas,” Dr Watkins said.
“A drier than average outlook is not an outlook for no rain at all. Significant rainfall events are always possible, so it’s important to keep a close eye on the seven-day forecast.”
He said Winter was wet in parts of southern Victoria and western Tasmania, as well as central Queensland, but for most areas experiencing long-term rainfall deficiencies there was little relief.
“The outlook for temperatures in the coming three months shows most of Australia is likely to see warmer days and nights … with only isolated parts of southern Australia and Tasmania likely to see cooler conditions,” Dr Watkins said.
He said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was the main climate driver impacting the outlook.
“A positive IOD means we have cooler than average waters between Australia and Indonesia,” Dr Watkins said.
“This generally means less cloud than normal forms to the northwest of Australia, resulting in less rainfall and higher than average temperatures over central and southeastern Australia during winter and spring.”
He said the Spring Outlook would also see the introduction of a suite of new climate outlook products.
“These new outlooks will begin where the seven-day forecast ends, giving an indication of likely temperature and rainfall in the coming weeks,” Dr Watkins said.
“The outlooks will also be issued more frequently, which will provide the community and climate-sensitive industries with the most up to date information on likely rainfall and temperatures for the coming weeks and months.”
The Bureau’s outlook overview for Spring can be accessed at this PS News link.
