Premier Jeremy Rockliff is looking to recruit the former federal member for Bass Bridgit Archer into his state Cabinet ranks. Photo: Jeremy Rockliff Facebook.
After more than a week of turmoil during which a no-confidence motion was passed against Premier Jeremy Rockliff, Tasmanian Governor Barbara Baker has accepted the Premier’s recommendation to dissolve the House of Assembly and head back to the polls on 19 July.
Mr Rockliff’s recommendation to hold a fresh election barely 16 months after the last one was accepted by the Governor after she deliberated for a couple of days, and after it became clear that no-one else from the Liberal Party, nor Labor leader Dean Winter, could form a minority government.
“Before visiting the Governor, I convened a meeting of the Parliamentary Liberal Party where I, once again, received unanimous support to continue to lead the Liberal Party,” Mr Rockliff said in an 11 June statement.
“Another election is not what I wanted, and I know that it’s not what Tasmanians wanted. But it was forced upon us by the Leader of the Opposition.
“So, let’s get on with it.”
And it didn’t take long for the campaigning to begin, with Mr Rockliff and his Minister for Business, Industry and Resources Eric Abetz going straight onto the front foot against Labor and the Greens.
“Tasmania cannot afford the risk of going back to the bad old days of a Labor-Green Government,” Mr Rockliff said.
“We cannot afford an inexperienced and desperate Dean Winter, who will keep misleading Tasmanians about privatisation.”
Mr Abetz added: “Any handshake, negotiation, agreement or otherwise between Labor and the Greens is what it says on the box. A disaster for Tasmania.
“Labor needed the Greens’ support to succeed with their disruptive no-confidence motion, which Tasmanians do not want.
“This vote with the Greens was just the first step. Being propped up by the Greens to form government is a deal with the Devil.”
But Mr Winter has again said Labor and the Greens would not govern together, stressing the point during a meeting with Governor Baker on 11 June.
“In that meeting, I reiterated my position that Labor will not be doing a deal with the Greens,” he wrote on social media.
The ABC’s election analyst Casey Briggs said the poll was unlikely to result in a clear majority by either side.
He said polling currently slightly favoured Labor, although Mr Rockliff remained popular among voters.
“This election represents Labor’s best chance of returning to the government benches since it lost power in 2014,” Mr Briggs said in an article on the ABC News website.
“But unless sentiment shifts, it would have a fragile grip on power and Dean Winter would likely still need to negotiate his way to the premier’s office.”
Mr Briggs said the most recent polling by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS) in May showed Labor holding a slight lead with 31 per cent, ahead of the Liberals on 29 per cent. But the polling has also seen surges in support for independents to a combined level above 25 per cent, and steady support for the Greens at 14 per cent.
“Under Tasmania’s electoral system, it is nigh on impossible to convert primary votes like that into majority government,” Mr Briggs said.
“The state uses the same electoral boundaries as the federal parliament, with each of the state’s five electorates choosing seven members.
“To win majority government, a party needs at least three seats per electorate, and a fourth in three of them.
“Getting to four almost certainly requires a vote above 40 per cent, a tall order in our current era of fragmented parties.”
