Victoria is in for a mixed bag of fire potential this Autumn with the National Council for Fire & Emergency Services’ (AFAC) predicting normal and below normal fire potential across the State.
Releasing its Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn 2023, AFAC said that despite recording its lowest bushfire activity since 2010-11 this summer, below average rainfall across most of the State meant drier ridges and northern aspects of foothill forests were now available to burn.
“The current climate outlook for autumn indicates increased potential for below average rainfall, particularly in northern and western Victoria, along with average to warmer than average maximum temperatures,” AFAC said.
“Due to the recent rainfall deficit, the drier ridges and northern aspects of foothill forests are now available to burn, however, a high abundance of moisture and green growth remains in gullies and on southern aspects, particularly in taller wet forests, thereby limiting large fire potential,” it said.
“This pattern of lower fuel availability is likely to continue to result in below average bushfire activity in wet forests across the eastern ranges through autumn, however a return to average bushfire activity can be expected in foothill forests, especially if a dry autumn eventuates.”
AFAC said the remaining areas across Victoria were assessed as having average bushfire potential.
It said part of this was due to drier forests, woodlands and heathlands (inland and coastal), which could support bushfire activity with the onset of hot and dry weather conditions.
“There remains significant grass fuel across much of the central and southern parts of the State, and, when coupled with later than normal curing levels, grassfire potential is expected to persist into autumn,” the Council said.
“Forests in the eastern ranges currently remain too damp and green for effective planned burning, however a dry start to the autumn period may increase fuel availability enough for favourable autumn burning in many foothill forests across the State,” it said.
“Conversely this may result in a delay in planned burning in drier forest types.”
AFAC’s five-page Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn 2023 can be accessed at this PS News link.
