NSW is in for a mixed bag of fire potential this Autumn with the National Council for Fire & Emergency Services’ (AFAC) predicting above normal, normal and below normal fire potential across the State.
Releasing its Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn 2023, AFAC said that during summer 2022-23, NSW saw a shift from saturated soils and record rainfall to more typical conditions.
“Throughout summer, some areas of NSW have had below average rainfall and will be starting autumn drier than normal,” AFAC said.
“Most of NSW is expected to see a normal fire potential in autumn, with either harvesting operations reducing grass fuel loads, or areas forecast to receive median to above median autumn rainfall,” it said.
“Some areas of NSW are expected to see continued above normal fire potential this autumn, due to dry (cured) grass, elevated grass fuel loads and a forecast outlook for below normal rainfall.”
AFAC said that even under cooler conditions, on dry windy days these areas could potentially support intense and fast spreading grass fires.
It said below normal potential was expected to continue for areas recovering from the 2019-20 fire season due to lower fuel loads, wetter than average soil moisture and the rainfall outlook.
“It should be noted that rainfall over the last couple of seasons has created favourable growing conditions and fuels in these areas are re-accumulating quickly,” the National Council said.
“Some forested areas in central NSW remain dry and could continue to support fires in early autumn,” it said.
“Similarly, grasses west of the Great Dividing Range are dry (cured) and if below median forecast rainfall eventuates in early autumn, this dry grass could continue to pose an above normal fire risk during the period.
“It should also be noted that from time to time during autumn the state can experience periods of increased fire danger.”
AFAC’s five-page Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn 2023 can be accessed at this PS News link.
